Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.61 – 174.04

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 78.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233 ±12.7

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 105.14Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 90.57Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 48.9Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.8 ±10.4

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 85.14Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 64.04Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 24.86Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6153, 4546, 157

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.6 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6153, 4546, 157

Auto

22.5 9%

Teleop

142.4 59%

Endgame

77.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 12%

Blue · 8708, 8544, 173

/ 100 compat

Projected

174 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8708, 8544, 173

Auto

15.8 11%

Teleop

89.6 60%

Endgame

43.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 12%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score244.6pts

Blue projected score174pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 12%, blue 21%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.6
Score range: 135–284
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 214.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233Season APEX301.8

22.5Auto15.8

142.4Teleop89.6

77.1Endgame43.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	19
teleop	93	60
endgame	50	23
foul	0	0
total	159	102

Result

Final score

159 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 78.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable