Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

287.56 – 232.62

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

263 – 277

Prediction missed · off by 34.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.5 ±10.8

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 54.94Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 203.3Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5494Bizarbots Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 29.32Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464.7 ±10.4

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 134.03Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 19.75Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 78.84Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8544, 1768, 5494

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.6 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8544, 1768, 5494

Auto

44.7 17%

Teleop

145.0 54%

Endgame

76.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 16%

Blue · 4122, 11175, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4122, 11175, 2423

Auto

41.7 18%

Teleop

132.2 58%

Endgame

54.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 16%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score287.6pts

Blue projected score232.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 16%, blue 14%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.9
Score range: 187–334
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 540 vs event baseline 253.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.5Season APEX464.7

44.7Auto41.7

145Teleop132.2

76.8Endgame54.8

54Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	31
teleop	98	170
endgame	66	76
foul	65	0
total	263	277

Result

Final score

263 – 277

Prediction missed · off by 34.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable