Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

233.32 – 293.88

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 88.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.7 ±41.6

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 11.1Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 156.2Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 66.02Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506.7 ±9.8

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 54.06Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 123.26Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 116.56Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2084, 9997, 2872

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.3 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2084, 9997, 2872

Auto

33.6 14%

Teleop

145.6 62%

Endgame

54.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 501, 5000, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.9 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 501, 5000, 228

Auto

47.8 17%

Teleop

164.4 58%

Endgame

73.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.56 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score233.3pts

Blue projected score293.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 12%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.6
Score range: 181–346
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 287.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.7Season APEX506.7

33.6Auto47.8

145.6Teleop164.4

54.3Endgame73.5

84Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	35
teleop	71	37
endgame	75	64
foul	0	0
total	214	136

Result

Final score

214 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 88.6 pts