Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

299.4 – 433.02

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

323 – 384

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.5 ±10.5

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 52.1Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 102.52Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 144.78Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691.4 ±9

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 135.44Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 252.26Rank 4Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 45.32Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 839, 1740, 8046

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 839, 1740, 8046

Auto

59.0 20%

Teleop

159.1 54%

Endgame

76.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 13%

Blue · 190, 3467, 237

/ 100 compat

Projected

433 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 190, 3467, 237

Auto

67.6 16%

Teleop

242.7 57%

Endgame

117.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 13%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score299.4pts

Blue projected score433pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 13%, blue 8%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.6
Score range: 247–485
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 707 vs event baseline 286.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.5Season APEX691.4

59Auto67.6

159.1Teleop242.7

76.5Endgame117.3

80Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	92
teleop	188	236
endgame	66	56
foul	15	0
total	323	384

Result

Final score

323 – 384

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts