Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.77 – 335.63

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 125.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 566.1 ±10.7

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 111.41Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 19.94Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 79.42Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 592.8 ±11.2

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 133.97Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 70.96Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 130.7Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 8626, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9644, 8626, 7407

Auto

40.4 20%

Teleop

93.6 47%

Endgame

65.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 16%

Blue · 5000, 10413, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.6 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5000, 10413, 228

Auto

43.1 13%

Teleop

197.2 61%

Endgame

85.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 16%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score210.8pts

Blue projected score335.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 16%, blue 12%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.9
Score range: 159–388
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 286.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

566.1Season APEX592.8

40.4Auto43.1

93.6Teleop197.2

65.8Endgame85.3

121Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	57
teleop	185	106
endgame	110	38
foul	0	0
total	328	201

Result

Final score

328 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 125.9 pts