Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

300.48 – 441.55

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

298 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.4 ±41.8

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 116.19Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 84.78Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 99.51Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 960.9 ±8.1

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 192.89Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 17.57Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 231.09Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1601, 9990, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1601, 9990, 271

Auto

45.0 15%

Teleop

138.7 47%

Endgame

108.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 20%

Blue · 1768, 6328, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

441.6 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 6328, 1796

Auto

74.8 18%

Teleop

230.6 54%

Endgame

119.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 20%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score300.5pts

Blue projected score441.6pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 20%, blue 16%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141.1
Score range: 249–493
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 683 vs event baseline 285.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.4Season APEX960.9

45Auto74.8

138.7Teleop230.6

108.6Endgame119.5

52Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	109
teleop	95	191
endgame	132	70
foul	30	15
total	298	385

Result

Final score

298 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 pts