Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

250.06 – 254.75

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

491 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 133.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.7 ±11.2

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 71.72Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 31.46Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 146.88Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 619 ±9.8

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 101.32Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 81.55Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 71.88Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2079, 2168, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.1 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2079, 2168, 1058

Auto

36.8 15%

Teleop

143.3 59%

Endgame

61.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 23%

Blue · 78, 2877, 6911

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.8 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 78, 2877, 6911

Auto

63.9 26%

Teleop

137.6 55%

Endgame

46.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 23%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score250.1pts

Blue projected score254.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 23%, blue 6%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.7
Score range: 199–306
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 719 vs event baseline 284.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.7Season APEX619

36.8Auto63.9

143.3Teleop137.6

61.7Endgame46.5

50Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	52
teleop	300	89
endgame	88	87
foul	15	0
total	491	228

Result

Final score

491 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 133.8 pts