Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.96 – 143.66

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

297 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 91.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 558.4 ±9.3

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 107.34Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 42.45Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 74.17Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456.1 ±10.4

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 86.78Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 28.29Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 28.59Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 4041, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

224 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9644, 4041, 7407

Auto

32.2 14%

Teleop

120.6 52%

Endgame

78.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 14%

Blue · 5422, 319, 1100

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5422, 319, 1100

Auto

44.3 32%

Teleop

54.4 40%

Endgame

38.4 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 14%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score224pts

Blue projected score143.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 14%, blue 8%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.3
Score range: 93–275
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 550 vs event baseline 283.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

558.4Season APEX456.1

32.2Auto44.3

120.6Teleop54.4

78.7Endgame38.4

127Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	56
teleop	124	105
endgame	91	92
foul	35	0
total	297	253

Result

Final score

297 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 91.2 pts