Playoff · Playoff Match 21 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

449.84 – 368.31

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

371 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 89.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 754.4 ±8.8

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 190.62Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 33.63Rank 45Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 225.59Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691.4 ±9

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 111.91Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 231.94Rank 4Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 24.46Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 1735, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

449.8 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 1735, 1796

Auto

94.2 22%

Teleop

238.3 55%

Endgame

99.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 15%

Blue · 190, 3467, 237

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.3 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 190, 3467, 237

Auto

74.4 17%

Teleop

240.6 56%

Endgame

113.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 15%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.68 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score449.8pts

Blue projected score368.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 80%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 15%, blue 8%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.5
Score range: 316–502
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 639 vs event baseline 288.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

754.4Season APEX691.4

94.2Auto74.4

238.3Teleop240.6

99.5Endgame113.5

81Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	45
teleop	183	136
endgame	106	87
foul	0	0
total	371	268

Result

Final score

371 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 89.6 pts