Playoff · Playoff Match 20 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

374.11 – 304.48

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

334 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 691.4 ±9

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 113.94Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 233.92Rank 4Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 26.25Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 521.5 ±10.5

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 51.7Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 102.98Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 149.8Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 3467, 237

/ 100 compat

Projected

374.1 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 190, 3467, 237

Auto

69.3 16%

Teleop

259.9 58%

Endgame

117.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 8%

Blue · 839, 1740, 8046

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 839, 1740, 8046

Auto

49.3 17%

Teleop

156.9 55%

Endgame

79.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 8%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.53 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score374.1pts

Blue projected score304.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 8%, blue 13%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.6
Score range: 252–426
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 625 vs event baseline 288.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

691.4Season APEX521.5

69.3Auto49.3

259.9Teleop156.9

117.8Endgame79.7

3Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	37
teleop	126	101
endgame	88	138
foul	15	15
total	334	291

Result

Final score

334 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts