Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.33 – 286.29

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

203 – 337

Prediction missed · off by 82 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.5 ±10.7

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 26.72Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 136.59Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 153.02Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.4 ±41.8

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 110.31Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 79.07Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 96.91Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2712, 1073, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.3 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2712, 1073, 6324

Auto

66.5 21%

Teleop

149.0 47%

Endgame

102.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 17%

Blue · 1601, 9990, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.3 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1601, 9990, 271

Auto

44.6 16%

Teleop

120.5 44%

Endgame

109.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 17%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score316.3pts

Blue projected score286.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 17%, blue 20%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30
Score range: 235–367
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 540 vs event baseline 283.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.5Season APEX266.4

66.5Auto44.6

149Teleop120.5

102.5Endgame109.8

117Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	41
teleop	98	178
endgame	73	118
foul	15	0
total	203	337

Result

Final score

203 – 337

Prediction missed · off by 82 pts