Playoff · Playoff Match 19 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

479.9 – 497.71

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

321 – 418

Prediction correct · off by 119.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 754.4 ±8.8

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 199.28Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 46.21Rank 45Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 234.41Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 725.4 ±11.4

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX 63.48Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 192.37Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 241.86Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 1735, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

479.9 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 1735, 1796

Auto

92.4 20%

Teleop

261.0 57%

Endgame

104.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 15%

Blue · 2791, 88, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

497.7 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2791, 88, 5687

Auto

94.3 19%

Teleop

271.8 56%

Endgame

119.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 15%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.1 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score479.9pts

Blue projected score497.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 80%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 15%, blue 22%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.8
Score range: 428–550
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 739 vs event baseline 287.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

754.4Season APEX725.4

92.4Auto94.3

261Teleop271.8

104.5Endgame119.5

78Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	92
teleop	141	199
endgame	78	127
foul	0	0
total	321	418

Result

Final score

321 – 418

Prediction correct · off by 119.3 pts