Playoff · Playoff Match 18 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.67 – 239.39

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

321 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 129.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.5 ±10.5

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 50.46Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 103.19Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 147.02Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 566.1 ±10.7

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 111.38Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 33.69Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 94.32Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 839, 1740, 8046

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.7 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 839, 1740, 8046

Auto

52.0 18%

Teleop

161.5 55%

Endgame

77.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 13%

Blue · 9644, 8626, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.4 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9644, 8626, 7407

Auto

44.8 20%

Teleop

112.4 50%

Endgame

67.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 13%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score300.7pts

Blue projected score239.4pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 13%, blue 16%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.3
Score range: 187–353
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 289.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.5Season APEX566.1

52Auto44.8

161.5Teleop112.4

77.8Endgame67.3

98Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	41
teleop	124	129
endgame	92	17
foul	75	0
total	321	0

Result

Final score

321 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 129.9 pts