Playoff · Playoff Match 17 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

336.95 – 352.45

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

543 – 352

Prediction missed · off by 103.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 691.4 ±9

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 99.66Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 223.5Rank 4Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 13.79Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.5 ±41.6

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 155.78Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 123.78Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 72.89Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 3467, 237

/ 100 compat

Projected

337 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 190, 3467, 237

Auto

70.7 17%

Teleop

242.5 57%

Endgame

113.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 8%

Blue · 9997, 3950, 2872

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.5 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9997, 3950, 2872

Auto

58.5 17%

Teleop

211.0 61%

Endgame

76.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 8%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.03 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score337pts

Blue projected score352.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.5
Score range: 285–404
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 895 vs event baseline 287.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

691.4Season APEX278.5

70.7Auto58.5

242.5Teleop211

113.6Endgame76.8

4Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	46
teleop	345	190
endgame	136	101
foul	0	15
total	543	352

Result

Final score

543 – 352

Prediction missed · off by 103.3 pts