Playoff · Playoff Match 16 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

335.99 – 289.69

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

291 – 366

Prediction missed · off by 60.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 652.4 ±9.3

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 48.31Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 152.07Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 135.61Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 521.5 ±10.5

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 45.9Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 99.99Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 143.8Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5962, 6324, 1073

/ 100 compat

Projected

336 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5962, 6324, 1073

Auto

59.3 18%

Teleop

182.3 54%

Endgame

95.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 17%

Blue · 839, 1740, 8046

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 839, 1740, 8046

Auto

54.1 19%

Teleop

154.0 55%

Endgame

72.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 17%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score336pts

Blue projected score289.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 17%, blue 13%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.3
Score range: 238–388
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 657 vs event baseline 286.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

652.4Season APEX521.5

59.3Auto54.1

182.3Teleop154

95.5Endgame72.7

72Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	39
teleop	134	203
endgame	72	109
foul	15	15
total	291	366

Result

Final score

291 – 366

Prediction missed · off by 60.7 pts