Playoff · Playoff Match 15 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

333.28 – 304.17

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

439 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.5 ±41.6

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 150.08Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 116.54Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 66.66Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.4 ±41.8

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 116.89Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 91.62Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 95.66Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9997, 3950, 2872

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.3 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9997, 3950, 2872

Auto

57.3 17%

Teleop

206.4 62%

Endgame

69.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 5%

Blue · 1601, 9990, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.2 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1601, 9990, 271

Auto

43.7 15%

Teleop

131.7 46%

Endgame

113.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 5%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score333.3pts

Blue projected score304.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 5%, blue 20%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.1
Score range: 253–384
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 679 vs event baseline 285.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.5Season APEX266.4

57.3Auto43.7

206.4Teleop131.7

69Endgame113.3

64Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	49
teleop	235	130
endgame	111	61
foul	30	0
total	439	240

Result

Final score

439 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 pts