Playoff · Playoff Match 14 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

423.2 – 442.07

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 510

Prediction correct · off by 245.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 691.4 ±9

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 131.1Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 252.51Rank 4Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 39.59Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 655.8 ±9.3

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 21.23Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 188.82Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 232.02Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 3467, 237

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.2 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 190, 3467, 237

Auto

72.0 17%

Teleop

242.6 58%

Endgame

104.4 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 8%

Blue · 3623, 88, 5687

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.1 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3623, 88, 5687

Auto

104.7 24%

Teleop

226.5 52%

Endgame

104.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 8%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.01 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score423.2pts

Blue projected score442.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 8%, blue 25%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.9
Score range: 371–494
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 286.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

691.4Season APEX655.8

72Auto104.7

242.6Teleop226.5

104.4Endgame104.7

60Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	109
teleop	241	226
endgame	149	130
foul	0	45
total	0	510

Result

Final score

0 – 510

Prediction correct · off by 245.6 pts