Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

461.23 – 242.25

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

536 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 54 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 754.4 ±8.8

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 193.39Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 37.1Rank 45Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 230.74Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 566.1 ±10.7

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 116.98Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 34.31Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 90.96Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 1735, 1796

/ 100 compat

Projected

461.2 pts

~3.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 1735, 1796

Auto

79.9 18%

Teleop

254.6 57%

Endgame

110.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 15%

Blue · 9644, 8626, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.3 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9644, 8626, 7407

Auto

38.2 16%

Teleop

117.7 50%

Endgame

77.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 15%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.09 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score461.2pts

Blue projected score242.3pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 80%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 219
Score range: 191–512
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 745 vs event baseline 285.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

754.4Season APEX566.1

79.9Auto38.2

254.6Teleop117.7

110.2Endgame77.6

117Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	135	76
teleop	278	97
endgame	83	21
foul	40	15
total	536	209

Result

Final score

536 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 54 pts