Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.44 – 303.16

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.8 ±11.7

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 37.45Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 95.23Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 34.76Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 521.5 ±10.5

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 50.91Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 103.23Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 149.02Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4048, 5422, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.4 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4048, 5422, 319

Auto

31.3 19%

Teleop

70.7 43%

Endgame

63.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 13%

Blue · 839, 1740, 8046

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.2 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 839, 1740, 8046

Auto

57.4 19%

Teleop

163.5 55%

Endgame

75.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 13%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score167.4pts

Blue projected score303.2pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 13%, blue 13%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.7
Score range: 115–355
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 428 vs event baseline 286.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.8Season APEX521.5

31.3Auto57.4

70.7Teleop163.5

63.1Endgame75.5

93Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	40
teleop	124	109
endgame	32	57
foul	0	20
total	202	226

Result

Final score

202 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts