Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

322.13 – 307.86

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 652.4 ±9.3

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 45.57Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 130.74Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 145.82Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.7 ±11.2

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 84.49Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 54.04Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 169.33Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5962, 1073, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.1 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5962, 1073, 6324

Auto

56.5 17%

Teleop

160.9 49%

Endgame

109.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 17%

Blue · 2079, 2168, 1058

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.9 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2079, 2168, 1058

Auto

50.5 17%

Teleop

182.0 61%

Endgame

66.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 17%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.14 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score322.1pts

Blue projected score307.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 17%, blue 23%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.3
Score range: 257–373
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 590 vs event baseline 286.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

652.4Season APEX490.7

56.5Auto50.5

160.9Teleop182

109.5Endgame66

65Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	81
teleop	244	89
endgame	51	48
foul	0	5
total	367	223

Result

Final score

367 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 pts