Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

235.74 – 298.19

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

199 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 550.2 ±9.8

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 62.67Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 78.7Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 94.37Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.4 ±41.8

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 114.73Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 85.35Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 98.11Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 175, 2877, 78

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.7 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 175, 2877, 78

Auto

55.5 24%

Teleop

123.8 54%

Endgame

48.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 6%

Blue · 1601, 9990, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.2 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1601, 9990, 271

Auto

43.7 15%

Teleop

129.2 45%

Endgame

112.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 6%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.45 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score235.7pts

Blue projected score298.2pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 6%, blue 20%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.4
Score range: 184–350
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 286.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

550.2Season APEX266.4

55.5Auto43.7

123.8Teleop129.2

48.8Endgame112.4

114Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	48
teleop	88	144
endgame	52	112
foul	0	20
total	199	324

Result

Final score

199 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts