Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

283.14 – 275.14

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 138.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 573.9 ±11.2

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 102.86Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 131.71Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 48.57Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.8 ±9.8

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 93.71Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 102.86Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 78.57Rank 45Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7407, 78, 8626

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.1 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7407, 78, 8626

Auto

56.9 20%

Teleop

171.4 61%

Endgame

54.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 8%

Blue · 5962, 1073, 1735

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.1 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5962, 1073, 1735

Auto

52.3 20%

Teleop

138.6 53%

Endgame

71.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 8%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score283.1pts

Blue projected score275.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 8%, blue 13%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8
Score range: 219–339
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 313.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

573.9Season APEX478.8

56.9Auto52.3

171.4Teleop138.6

54.9Endgame71.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	5
teleop	69	45
endgame	16	81
foul	0	0
total	150	131

Result

Final score

150 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 138.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable