Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

276.03 – 131.56

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.6 ±13

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 36.17Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 148.04Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 91.82Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.5 ±11.2

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 54.77Rank 45Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 54.08Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 22.71Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2168, 8046, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

276 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2168, 8046, 271

Auto

55.5 20%

Teleop

144.9 53%

Endgame

74.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 14%

Blue · 1735, 4048, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1735, 4048, 6328

Auto

-5.4 0%

Teleop

44.4 39%

Endgame

75.6 66%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 14%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score276pts

Blue projected score131.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 14%, blue 13%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.5
Score range: 82–326
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 275.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.6Season APEX502.5

55.5Auto-5.4

144.9Teleop44.4

74.6Endgame75.6

59Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	12
teleop	89	44
endgame	86	19
foul	0	30
total	183	105

Result

Final score

183 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable