Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

551.24 – 386.09

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

495 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 106.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 755.5 ±9.5

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 251.7Rank 4Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 255.16Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 44.38Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 712.1 ±9.3

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 125.01Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 162.67Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 98.41Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3467, 5687, 237

/ 100 compat

Projected

551.2 pts

~3.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3467, 5687, 237

Auto

68.5 13%

Teleop

318.6 58%

Endgame

158.3 29%

Strengths

· 5687 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 9%

Blue · 228, 5000, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.1 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 228, 5000, 7407

Auto

77.0 20%

Teleop

230.5 61%

Endgame

72.5 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 9%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.06 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score551.2pts

Blue projected score386.1pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 9%, blue 16%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 165.2
Score range: 336–601
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 725 vs event baseline 277.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

755.5Season APEX712.1

68.5Auto77

318.6Teleop230.5

158.3Endgame72.5

68Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	21
teleop	298	126
endgame	74	68
foul	25	15
total	495	230

Result

Final score

495 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 106.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

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