Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

240.28 – 322.26

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 66 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.7 ±41.6

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 52.88Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 39.93Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 147.47Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 700.3 ±9.3

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 55.93Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 181.58Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 84.75Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3950, 4048, 9997

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.3 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3950, 4048, 9997

Auto

38.3 16%

Teleop

137.8 59%

Endgame

59.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 9%

Blue · 2079, 6324, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.3 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2079, 6324, 2877

Auto

66.6 22%

Teleop

158.8 52%

Endgame

79.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 9%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.47 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score240.3pts

Blue projected score322.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 9%, blue 17%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82
Score range: 190–372
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 534 vs event baseline 277.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.7Season APEX700.3

38.3Auto66.6

137.8Teleop158.8

59.1Endgame79.7

109Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	68
teleop	150	130
endgame	122	44
foul	0	0
total	292	242

Result

Final score

292 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 66 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable