Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

236.23 – 258.37

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 72.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.2 ±12

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 111.87Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 107.63Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 16.73Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.7 ±11.2

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 100.78Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 124.23Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 33.36Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1601, 190, 2084

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.2 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1601, 190, 2084

Auto

50.5 20%

Teleop

120.2 46%

Endgame

88.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 11%

Blue · 9644, 3950, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9644, 3950, 319

Auto

38.0 14%

Teleop

160.4 59%

Endgame

73.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 11%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.76 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score236.2pts

Blue projected score258.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 11%, blue 14%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.1
Score range: 184–310
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 289.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.2Season APEX429.7

50.5Auto38

120.2Teleop160.4

88.1Endgame73.2

65Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	28
teleop	38	171
endgame	36	34
foul	0	0
total	116	233

Result

Final score

116 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 72.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable