Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

208.77 – 301.61

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.3 ±11.7

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 61.98Rank 45Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 102.91Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 43.88Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.1 ±11.2

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 100.93Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 27.11Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 173.57Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1735, 5422, 2168

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.8 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1735, 5422, 2168

Auto

37.5 19%

Teleop

106.5 54%

Endgame

53.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 14%

Blue · 1601, 839, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.6 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1601, 839, 88

Auto

50.6 17%

Teleop

150.0 51%

Endgame

91.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 14%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score208.8pts

Blue projected score301.6pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 14%, blue 18%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.8
Score range: 159–352
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 539 vs event baseline 277.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.3Season APEX510.1

37.5Auto50.6

106.5Teleop150

53.9Endgame91.3

62Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	68
teleop	69	213
endgame	37	125
foul	0	0
total	133	406

Result

Final score

133 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable