Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

260.86 – 300.24

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 59.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.7 ±9.8

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 114.15Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 89.17Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 57.54Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.5 ±11.2

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 57.16Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 148.87Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 94.21Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1073, 78, 175

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.9 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1073, 78, 175

Auto

46.0 17%

Teleop

143.6 54%

Endgame

76.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 7%

Blue · 319, 8046, 10413

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.2 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 319, 8046, 10413

Auto

27.5 9%

Teleop

190.6 62%

Endgame

87.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 7%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.61 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score260.9pts

Blue projected score300.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.4
Score range: 210–351
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 530 vs event baseline 281.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.7Season APEX561.5

46Auto27.5

143.6Teleop190.6

76.1Endgame87

118Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	51
teleop	150	100
endgame	56	59
foul	0	15
total	305	225

Result

Final score

305 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 59.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable