Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

191.25 – 212.07

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 84.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.4 ±11.7

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX -5.98Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 163.13Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 34.1Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.9 ±11.9

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 31.32Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX 88.13Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 92.62Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8626, 5000, 237

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.3 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8626, 5000, 237

Auto

39.7 22%

Teleop

127.7 72%

Endgame

11.0 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 15%

Blue · 6328, 2791, 2876

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6328, 2791, 2876

Auto

27.1 13%

Teleop

100.7 49%

Endgame

75.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 15%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score191.3pts

Blue projected score212.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 15%, blue 15%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.8
Score range: 140–263
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 284.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.4Season APEX565.9

39.7Auto27.1

127.7Teleop100.7

11Endgame75.9

81Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	10
teleop	67	32
endgame	68	13
foul	15	0
total	204	55

Result

Final score

204 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 84.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

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