Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

332.56 – 223

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

386 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.1 ±40.8

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 33.9Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 133.77Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 164.89Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.3 ±12.8

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 110.19Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 111.83Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 0.98Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5962, 9997, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.6 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5962, 9997, 88

Auto

75.1 23%

Teleop

185.1 57%

Endgame

66.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 10%

Blue · 1601, 2872, 1100

/ 100 compat

Projected

223 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1601, 2872, 1100

Auto

25.1 12%

Teleop

108.2 51%

Endgame

78.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 10%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.72 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score332.6pts

Blue projected score223pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 10%, blue 6%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.6
Score range: 173–383
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 280.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.1Season APEX439.3

75.1Auto25.1

185.1Teleop108.2

66.3Endgame78

33Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	42
teleop	219	89
endgame	107	29
foul	5	0
total	386	160

Result

Final score

386 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable