Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

306.12 – 342.53

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

393 – 193

Prediction missed · off by 118.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.3 ±10.5

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 110.72Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 100.6Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 94.8Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 652.9 ±10.7

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 120.89Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 122.13Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 99.51Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 1740, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.1 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9644, 1740, 5422

Auto

69.7 23%

Teleop

191.9 63%

Endgame

43.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 18%

Blue · 1058, 10413, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.5 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1058, 10413, 2877

Auto

59.2 17%

Teleop

170.2 50%

Endgame

108.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 18%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.75 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score306.1pts

Blue projected score342.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 18%, blue 10%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.4
Score range: 256–393
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 279.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.3Season APEX652.9

69.7Auto59.2

191.9Teleop170.2

43.7Endgame108.9

58Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	35
teleop	183	68
endgame	143	60
foul	0	30
total	393	193

Result

Final score

393 – 193

Prediction missed · off by 118.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable