Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178 – 305.13

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 360

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.2 ±11.7

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 51.97Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 22.31Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 103.72Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 527.6 ±40.6

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 133.66Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 88.93Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 82.54Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4041, 8626, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

178 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4041, 8626, 5422

Auto

41.7 24%

Teleop

77.2 45%

Endgame

53.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 12%

Blue · 1073, 9990, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.1 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1073, 9990, 7407

Auto

63.0 21%

Teleop

152.5 51%

Endgame

84.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 12%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score178pts

Blue projected score305.1pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 12%, blue 19%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.1
Score range: 126–357
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 530 vs event baseline 289.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.2Season APEX527.6

41.7Auto63

77.2Teleop152.5

53Endgame84

88Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	86
teleop	103	192
endgame	49	82
foul	0	0
total	170	360

Result

Final score

170 – 360

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable