Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.22 – 184.34

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 86.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 648.8 ±9.3

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX -25.94Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 148.26Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 120.9Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 627.5 ±9.5

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 93.84Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 41.01Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 49.49Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1100, 88, 8046

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.2 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1100, 88, 8046

Auto

38.8 18%

Teleop

93.2 42%

Endgame

89.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 10%

Blue · 7407, 237, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.3 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7407, 237, 190

Auto

82.9 41%

Teleop

151.6 76%

Endgame

-33.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 10%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.4 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score243.2pts

Blue projected score184.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.9
Score range: 134–293
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 600 vs event baseline 279.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

648.8Season APEX627.5

38.8Auto82.9

93.2Teleop151.6

89.3Endgame-33.9

99Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	54
teleop	218	68
endgame	72	96
foul	0	0
total	382	218

Result

Final score

382 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 86.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable