Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

255.01 – 345.62

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

349 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 74.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 579.9 ±9.4

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 29.55Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX -3.78Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 229.24Rank 4Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.7 ±41.6

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 127.72Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 125.52Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 92.38Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 839, 4041, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

255 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 839, 4041, 3467

Auto

47.9 19%

Teleop

121.6 48%

Endgame

83.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 8%

Blue · 9997, 271, 1740

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.6 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9997, 271, 1740

Auto

86.4 25%

Teleop

185.3 55%

Endgame

67.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 8%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.47 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score255pts

Blue projected score345.6pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 8%, blue 10%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.6
Score range: 205–396
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 749 vs event baseline 278.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

579.9Season APEX288.7

47.9Auto86.4

121.6Teleop185.3

83.3Endgame67.7

132Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	65
teleop	234	245
endgame	105	90
foul	0	0
total	349	400

Result

Final score

349 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 74.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable