Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

400.98 – 477.83

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

245 – 521

Prediction correct · off by 99.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 709.3 ±9.3

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 156.15Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 127.64Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 117.19Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 664.6 ±40.6

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 118.16Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 225.57Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 134.1Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8046, 7407, 6911

/ 100 compat

Projected

401 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8046, 7407, 6911

Auto

70.9 17%

Teleop

230.9 57%

Endgame

105.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 7%

Blue · 9990, 1796, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

477.8 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 1796, 5000

Auto

96.7 20%

Teleop

253.7 53%

Endgame

127.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 7%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score401pts

Blue projected score477.8pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 7%, blue 31%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.8
Score range: 352–527
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 766 vs event baseline 273.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

709.3Season APEX664.6

70.9Auto96.7

230.9Teleop253.7

105.9Endgame127.1

134Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	110
teleop	138	282
endgame	48	99
foul	0	30
total	245	521

Result

Final score

245 – 521

Prediction correct · off by 99.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable