Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

212.8 – 306.12

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 118.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396 ±11.2

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 94.74Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 88.36Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 29.7Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.3 ±11.2

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 183.21Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 17.33Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 105.58Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 228, 4048

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.8 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9644, 228, 4048

Auto

25.9 12%

Teleop

149.1 67%

Endgame

47.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 20%

Blue · 88, 4041, 2712

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.1 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 88, 4041, 2712

Auto

28.7 10%

Teleop

172.9 61%

Endgame

79.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 20%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.41 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score212.8pts

Blue projected score306.1pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 20%, blue 15%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.3
Score range: 163–356
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 277.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396Season APEX431.3

25.9Auto28.7

149.1Teleop172.9

47.8Endgame79.6

175Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	50
teleop	141	66
endgame	104	35
foul	0	0
total	295	151

Result

Final score

295 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 118.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable