Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

180.79 – 216.89

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.9 ±10.5

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 107.25Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 1.84Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 71.7Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.6 ±12.4

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 161.82Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 2.81Rank 45Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 52.26Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2877, 1100, 1740

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.8 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2877, 1100, 1740

Auto

56.2 31%

Teleop

94.7 53%

Endgame

28.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 9%

Blue · 271, 1735, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.9 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 271, 1735, 319

Auto

13.4 6%

Teleop

96.5 46%

Endgame

98.5 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 9%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.68 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score180.8pts

Blue projected score216.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.1
Score range: 131–267
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 280.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.9Season APEX400.6

56.2Auto13.4

94.7Teleop96.5

28.9Endgame98.5

84Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	32
teleop	65	132
endgame	38	78
foul	40	0
total	184	242

Result

Final score

184 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable