Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

419.04 – 256.58

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

183 – 306

Prediction missed · off by 142.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.7 ±9.8

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 88.11Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 154.25Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 176.68Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.2 ±11.2

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 83.18Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 120.64Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 52.76Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 839, 6324, 2876

/ 100 compat

Projected

419 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 839, 6324, 2876

Auto

86.6 21%

Teleop

215.3 51%

Endgame

117.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 17%

Blue · 175, 7407, 1601

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.6 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 175, 7407, 1601

Auto

41.8 17%

Teleop

149.8 62%

Endgame

48.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 17%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.79 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score419pts

Blue projected score256.6pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 17%, blue 8%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 162.5
Score range: 207–469
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 277.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.7Season APEX510.2

86.6Auto41.8

215.3Teleop149.8

117.4Endgame48.8

77Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	51
teleop	75	145
endgame	21	110
foul	5	0
total	183	306

Result

Final score

183 – 306

Prediction missed · off by 142.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable