Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.39 – 66.28

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

468 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 234.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.8 ±9.8

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 160.44Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 72.08Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 22.87Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543.4 ±10.5

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 44.82Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX -40.49Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 61.95Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1796, 5962, 2079

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.4 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1796, 5962, 2079

Auto

30.8 13%

Teleop

143.7 58%

Endgame

71.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 21%

Blue · 1073, 237, 6911

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1073, 237, 6911

Auto

17.8 25%

Teleop

-15.7 0%

Endgame

70.3 97%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 21%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.03 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score255.4pts

Blue projected score66.3pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 21%, blue 9%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.1
Score range: 17–304
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 790 vs event baseline 270.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.8Season APEX543.4

30.8Auto17.8

143.7Teleop-15.7

71.4Endgame70.3

63Consistency182

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	61
teleop	254	158
endgame	109	103
foul	0	0
total	468	322

Result

Final score

468 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 234.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable