Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

333.37 – 298.58

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

318 – 385

Prediction missed · off by 50.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 637.7 ±9.3

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 85.41Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 151.94Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 96.02Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 535.1 ±13

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 144.47Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 84.58Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 69.53Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5000, 1058, 501

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.4 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5000, 1058, 501

Auto

75.2 23%

Teleop

150.8 46%

Endgame

98.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 13%

Blue · 6324, 1601, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.6 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6324, 1601, 271

Auto

47.9 16%

Teleop

136.4 46%

Endgame

112.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 13%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score333.4pts

Blue projected score298.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 13%, blue 17%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.8
Score range: 251–381
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 703 vs event baseline 266.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

637.7Season APEX535.1

75.2Auto47.9

150.8Teleop136.4

98.4Endgame112.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	50
teleop	207	178
endgame	56	142
foul	15	15
total	318	385

Result

Final score

318 – 385

Prediction missed · off by 50.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable