Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

235.67 – 275.07

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

449 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 161.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 675.2 ±10.2

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX -15.88Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 99.47Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 152.08Rank 4Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.4 ±11.7

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 97.01Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 107Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 71.06Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2168, 7407, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2168, 7407, 3467

Auto

51.7 22%

Teleop

119.7 50%

Endgame

66.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 9%

Blue · 175, 10413, 4041

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 175, 10413, 4041

Auto

21.8 8%

Teleop

171.2 63%

Endgame

80.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 9%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.73 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score235.7pts

Blue projected score275.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.4
Score range: 188–323
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 264.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

675.2Season APEX382.4

51.7Auto21.8

119.7Teleop171.2

66.6Endgame80.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	18
teleop	310	77
endgame	82	71
foul	0	0
total	449	166

Result

Final score

449 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 161.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable