Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

269.57 – 401.69

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 109.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.1 ±40.5

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 71.34Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 32.19Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 166.04Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 676.2 ±9.8

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 160.51Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 101.11Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 140.07Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 190, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.6 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6328, 190, 9990

Auto

72.1 27%

Teleop

144.3 54%

Endgame

51.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 19%

Blue · 5687, 2079, 78

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.7 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5687, 2079, 78

Auto

84.0 21%

Teleop

221.4 55%

Endgame

95.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 19%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score269.6pts

Blue projected score401.7pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 19%, blue 13%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -132.1
Score range: 220–452
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 275.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.1Season APEX676.2

72.1Auto84

144.3Teleop221.4

51.7Endgame95.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	15
teleop	97	130
endgame	76	34
foul	0	20
total	254	199

Result

Final score

254 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 109.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable