Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

218.71 – 318.13

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

338 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 70.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485 ±12.4

10413Flux Robotics

Season APEX 154.9Event APEX 89.06Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 47.53Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 82.12Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 559.6 ±13.7

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 65.51Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2791Shaker Robotics

Season APEX 152Event APEX 48.64Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 203.98Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10413, 2712, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10413, 2712, 6324

Auto

16.0 8%

Teleop

118.0 55%

Endgame

79.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 10%

Blue · 271, 2791, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.1 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 271, 2791, 88

Auto

69.3 21%

Teleop

196.4 60%

Endgame

61.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 10%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score218.7pts

Blue projected score318.1pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 10%, blue 20%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.4
Score range: 169–368
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 677 vs event baseline 276.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485Season APEX559.6

16Auto69.3

118Teleop196.4

79.3Endgame61

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	52
teleop	202	180
endgame	72	107
foul	5	0
total	338	339

Result

Final score

338 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 70.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable