Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

229.02 – 256.55

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 128.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.5 ±12.8

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 131.69Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 21.05Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 76.28Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 636 ±9.3

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 73.62Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 76.28Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 106.65Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 839, 2168, 3950

/ 100 compat

Projected

229 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 839, 2168, 3950

Auto

30.6 13%

Teleop

178.0 76%

Endgame

26.4 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 15%

Blue · 1100, 9644, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.6 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1100, 9644, 5000

Auto

38.3 15%

Teleop

162.3 64%

Endgame

52.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 15%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.81 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score229pts

Blue projected score256.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 15%, blue 14%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.5
Score range: 177–309
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 289.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.5Season APEX636

30.6Auto38.3

178Teleop162.3

26.4Endgame52.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	41
teleop	12	106
endgame	3	41
foul	0	0
total	40	188

Result

Final score

40 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 128.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable