Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

258.61 – 410.64

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

420 – 322

Prediction missed · off by 125 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.8 ±40.6

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 128.32Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 91.43Rank 4Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 38.86Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 718.4 ±9.3

5687The Outliers

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 188.97Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 155.1Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

319Big Bad Bob

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 66.57Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9990, 3467, 2079

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 3467, 2079

Auto

35.5 14%

Teleop

159.1 62%

Endgame

61.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 13%

Blue · 5687, 1058, 319

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.6 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5687, 1058, 319

Auto

80.5 19%

Teleop

266.6 64%

Endgame

67.0 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 13%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score258.6pts

Blue projected score410.6pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 13%, blue 17%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152
Score range: 208–462
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 742 vs event baseline 282.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.8Season APEX718.4

35.5Auto80.5

159.1Teleop266.6

61.8Endgame67

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	62
teleop	193	134
endgame	156	121
foul	30	5
total	420	322

Result

Final score

420 – 322

Prediction missed · off by 125 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable