Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.29 – 177.53

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 64.6 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.9 ±11.7

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 88Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 33.57Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4041Iron Tigers

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 31.72Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 656.3 ±9.9

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX -17.32Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 88Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 106.85Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6911, 1601, 4041

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6911, 1601, 4041

Auto

16.1 11%

Teleop

56.3 37%

Endgame

77.8 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 9%

Blue · 237, 6328, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.5 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 237, 6328, 2877

Auto

24.1 15%

Teleop

62.3 38%

Endgame

79.1 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 9%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score153.3pts

Blue projected score177.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 9%, blue 10%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.2
Score range: 101–230
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 290.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.9Season APEX656.3

16.1Auto24.1

56.3Teleop62.3

77.8Endgame79.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	49
teleop	107	65
endgame	115	26
foul	0	0
total	245	140

Result

Final score

245 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 64.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable