Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

226.75 – 344.24

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

195 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 61 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.8 ±12.8

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 26.65Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 114.86Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 85.24Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.2 ±10.5

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 85.24Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 144.14Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8046LakerBots

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 114.86Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2084, 2872, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.8 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2084, 2872, 228

Auto

37.7 17%

Teleop

134.7 60%

Endgame

52.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 6%

Blue · 3623, 1740, 8046

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.2 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3623, 1740, 8046

Auto

56.5 16%

Teleop

225.6 66%

Endgame

61.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 6%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.28 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score226.8pts

Blue projected score344.2pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 6%, blue 16%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.5
Score range: 174–397
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 297.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.8Season APEX472.2

37.7Auto56.5

134.7Teleop225.6

52.4Endgame61.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	47
teleop	137	135
endgame	30	57
foul	0	15
total	195	254

Result

Final score

195 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 61 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable