Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.98 – 240.73

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

142 – 510

Prediction correct · off by 146.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.7 ±10.8

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 95.91Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 33.14Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX -11.07Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 501.1 ±40.8

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 64.84Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 79.98Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 95.91Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 175, 190, 4048

/ 100 compat

Projected

118 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 175, 190, 4048

Auto

12.8 12%

Teleop

47.1 46%

Endgame

43.5 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 12%

Blue · 5422, 1796, 9997

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.7 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5422, 1796, 9997

Auto

26.8 12%

Teleop

147.0 65%

Endgame

52.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 12%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score118pts

Blue projected score240.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 12%, blue 11%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -122.7
Score range: 65–294
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 652 vs event baseline 293.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.7Season APEX501.1

12.8Auto26.8

47.1Teleop147

43.5Endgame52.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	102
teleop	68	347
endgame	20	61
foul	5	0
total	142	510

Result

Final score

142 – 510

Prediction correct · off by 146.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable