Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.62 – 242.89

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 68.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515 ±9.4

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 27.39Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 104.78Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 187.45Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 703 ±9.3

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 117.25Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 78.83Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 46.81Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3623, 228, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.6 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3623, 228, 1768

Auto

61.7 20%

Teleop

151.8 50%

Endgame

92.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 16%

Blue · 5000, 2877, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.9 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5000, 2877, 5962

Auto

59.8 26%

Teleop

124.6 54%

Endgame

47.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 16%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.54 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score319.6pts

Blue projected score242.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 16%, blue 14%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.7
Score range: 191–372
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 700 vs event baseline 289.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515Season APEX703

61.7Auto59.8

151.8Teleop124.6

92.6Endgame47.3

53Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	79
teleop	225	153
endgame	73	81
foul	0	15
total	372	328

Result

Final score

372 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 68.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable