Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

245.96 – 136.07

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±9

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 147.1Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -11.82Rank 27Record 0-6-0Status -Confidence -

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 110.68Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.7 ±16.4

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 100.75Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 25.89Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 9.43Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, NaN, 6352

/ 100 compat

Projected

246 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, NaN, 6352

Auto

63.0 26%

Teleop

142.1 58%

Endgame

40.7 17%

Strengths

· 498B anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2486, 10506, 1165

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2486, 10506, 1165

Auto

28.0 20%

Teleop

73.8 54%

Endgame

35.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score246pts

Blue projected score136.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.9
Score range: 112–270
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.5Season APEX348.7

63Auto28

142.1Teleop73.8

40.7Endgame35.6

4Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	20
teleop	122	82
endgame	4	29
foul	0	0
total	199	131

Result

Final score

199 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Match videos

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